Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems

Mangrove forests provide crucial ecosystem services, yet their extent has declined significantly. This study investigates the socioeconomic and biophysical drivers of mangrove loss and gain globally from 1996 to 2016. Using hierarchical modeling, the researchers found that drivers of loss can also drive gain, and these drivers have shifted over time. The association with economic growth reversed, from negative impact in the first decade to enabling expansion in the second. Community forestry promoted expansion, while conversion to agriculture and aquaculture resulted in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are suggested as strategies to reverse mangrove loss.

Valerie Hagger, Thomas A. Worthington, Catherine E. Lovelock, Maria Fernanda Adame, Tatsuya Amano, Benjamin M. Brown, Daniel A. Friess, Emily Landis, Peter J. Mumby, Tiffany H. Morrison, Katherine R. O’Brien, Kerrie A. Wilson, Chris Zganjar, Megan I. Saunders