The widening gap in socioeconomic inequality globally has led to increased poverty and its associated consequences. This 'adversity', encompassing factors like economic scarcity, violence, family instability, and malnutrition, significantly impacts human development from conception to adolescence. Early life adversity is linked to increased risks of various diseases later in life, such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular issues. Paradoxically, individuals exposed to adversity also exhibit behaviors detrimental to their health, including increased smoking, substance use, and decreased physical activity. Simultaneously, early adversity seems to prioritize reproduction, manifested in early puberty, early parenthood, and higher fertility rates. Life History Theory suggests a bioenergetic trade-off between reproductive and maintenance efforts. Individuals experiencing adversity may prioritize immediate reproductive gains due to a lack of perceived control over their lives and a present-oriented time perspective, also known as 'collection risk,' where the uncertainty of future survival makes delaying reproduction less advantageous. This study aims to test the hypothesis that perceived control and time orientation mediate the relationship between early life adversity and this reproduction-health trade-off, employing large-scale multivariate models and cross-validation on data from the EVS and ESS.

The literature extensively demonstrates the link between socioeconomic status (SES) and perceived control, with individuals from lower SES often perceiving less control over their lives. Studies show that early life adversity increases mental health problems later in life through an external locus of control. The concept of 'unpredictability schemas,' developed in response to harsh childhood environments, explains risky behaviors in adulthood. Existing research supports the relationship between life conditions and perceived control, impacting health efforts. However, no previous studies have systematically examined the combined effects of early life adversity, perceived control, time orientation, reproductive behaviors, and health status within a life history framework. This gap highlights the need for the current study to provide a mechanistic understanding of how early life conditions shape these traits and their long-term consequences.

This study utilized data from two large-scale surveys: the European Values Study (EVS, N = 43,084) and the European Social Survey (ESS, N = 31,065). Respondents with excessive missing data were excluded. Multiple imputation techniques were used to handle missing values. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed using the lavaan and semTools packages in R. Early life adversity was modeled as a latent composite variable, encompassing economic capital deprivation, human capital deprivation, and experienced childhood mortality. The Reproduction-maintenance trade-off latent variable included age at first reproduction, number of children, and self-reported health status. Perceived control (EVS) and time orientation (ESS) were directly measured. The models were fitted using a weighted least squares estimator (WLSMV) and assessed using χ², CFI, RMSEA, and SRMR statistics. Stratified k-fold cross-validation was used to address overfitting and assess generalizability. The models were fitted separately for males and females to account for sex-specific differences in reproductive costs. For the ESS data, survey weights were incorporated to adjust for the complex sampling design. Exploratory mixed-effects models were used to investigate non-linear relationships between latent variables. Control analyses were conducted to examine the impact of excluding respondents without children.

Both EVS and ESS models showed excellent fit for both male and female participants. In the EVS models, human and economic capital deprivation strongly predicted early life adversity, whereas experienced mortality had a weaker impact. The Reproduction-maintenance trade-off showed positive correlations with poor health and earlier reproduction for both sexes; the number of children was significantly related to the trade-off only in females. Early life adversity negatively correlated with perceived control for both sexes, which, in turn, negatively correlated with the reproduction-maintenance trade-off. The indirect effect of early life adversity on the trade-off through perceived control was small (~8.4% for males, ~4.5% for females). In the ESS models, the indicators of early life adversity showed varied predictive power. The Reproduction-maintenance trade-off consistently correlated with its indicators in the same manner as in the EVS models. In the female ESS model, early life adversity positively correlated with time orientation, which in turn positively correlated with the reproduction-maintenance trade-off. The indirect effect of early life adversity through time orientation was small (~2.9%). The male ESS model showed no significant effect of early life adversity. Exploratory analyses revealed non-linear relationships between perceived control/time orientation and both early life adversity and the reproduction-maintenance trade-off. Control analyses including childless participants yielded generally consistent results, with some exceptions in the male models indicating that the absence of significant results in some cases may be attributed to the smaller number of positive cases in some specific variables.

The results only partially supported the hypotheses. While early life adversity, perceived control, and time orientation were all linked to the reproduction-maintenance trade-off, the mediating roles of perceived control and time orientation were weak. The weak associations between early life adversity and the psychological mediators may stem from simplistic measurement of these complex constructs or reflect the limited range of adversity in the affluent European samples. The stronger associations between the mediators and the reproduction-maintenance trade-off suggest these factors independently influence reproductive and health outcomes. The better model fit for female data may be due to the direct maintenance costs of pregnancy, whereas the significant impact of the number of children in the female models suggests important sex-specific differences. The observed non-linear relationships suggest the need for further investigation into the complexities of these interactions. The study’s findings highlight that early life adversity has multiple pathways influencing reproductive and health decisions.

This study provides evidence that early life adversity influences reproductive behavior and health outcomes, both directly and indirectly via perceived control and time orientation, but that those effects are small. While perceived control and time orientation do influence reproductive and maintenance strategies, they only partially mediate the effects of early life adversity. Future research should investigate these relationships using more nuanced measures of adversity, perceived control, and time orientation in more diverse populations to establish the generalizability of these findings. The non-linear relationship found needs to be further explored.

The correlational nature of the data limits causal inferences. The cross-sectional design prevents determining the direction of effects. The focus on European countries limits the generalizability of the findings to other cultures and societies. The measurement of early life adversity, perceived control, and time orientation may be overly simplistic, potentially masking more complex relationships. The use of self-reported data could be susceptible to bias.