Distorted learning from local metacognition supports transdiagnostic underconfidence

Individuals experiencing symptoms of anxiety and depression have been shown to exhibit persistent underconfidence. The origin of such metacognitive biases presents a puzzle, given that individuals should be able to learn appropriate levels of confidence from observing their own performance. In two large general population samples (N = 230 and N = 278), we measure both 'local' confidence in individual task instances and 'global' confidence as longer-run self-performance estimates while manipulating external feedback. Global confidence is sensitive to both local confidence and feedback valence—more frequent positive (negative) feedback increases (respectively decreases) global confidence, with asymmetries in feedback also leading to shifts in affective self-beliefs. Notably, however, global confidence exhibits reduced sensitivity to instances of higher local confidence in individuals with greater subclinical anxious-depression symptomatology, despite sensitivity to feedback valence remaining intact. Our finding of blunted sensitivity to increases in local confidence offers a mechanistic basis for how persistent underconfidence is maintained in the face of intact performance.