Differential effects of climate change on average and peak demand for heating and cooling across the contiguous USA

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on heating and cooling electricity demand in the contiguous United States. The study uses a spatially explicit analysis of temperature-based proxies for electricity demand over the past 70 years. While average annual cooling demand increases and heating demand decreases across most of the US, peak cooling demand shows robust increases, whereas trends in peak heating demand are smaller and less robust. The long left tail of the temperature distribution, with severe cold snaps dominating thermal demand extremes, highlights the need for system operators to account for these events when electrifying building heating to ensure grid reliability.

Yash Amonkar, James Doss-Gollin, David J. Farnham, Vijay Modi, Upmanu Lall