Atmospheric methane levels are growing rapidly, raising concerns about limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, even with stringent CO₂ mitigation. This study uses an Earth system model to investigate the impact of immediate versus delayed methane mitigation under a low CO2 emissions scenario. Results indicate that methane mitigation starting before 2030, alongside stringent CO2 mitigation, could limit warming to well below 2°C over three centuries. Delaying mitigation to 2040 or later increases the risk of exceeding the 2°C limit, with each 10-year delay adding roughly 0.1°C to peak warming. This is amplified by carbon-climate feedback. Urgent methane mitigation is crucial for achieving the 2°C goal.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Jul 12, 2023
Authors
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Alexander J. Maclsaac, Kirsten Zickfeld
Tags
methane mitigation
global warming
CO2 emissions
Earth system model
climate change
2°C limit
carbon-climate feedback
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