This study investigates the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA), also assessing deforestation policy impacts on agriculture. Forest loss up to 55–60% within 28 km grid cells initially enhances rainfall, but further deforestation drastically reduces it. This threshold is lower at larger scales. Widespread deforestation creates a negative-sum game, with larger-scale rainfall and productivity losses outweighing local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA could lose 56% of its forests by 2050, resulting in up to US$1 billion in annual agricultural losses. Reducing deforestation prevents these losses.

Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho, Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho, Juliana Leroy Davis, Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão, Jan Börner