This paper investigates the potential of crop switching and relocation to mitigate the economic losses in US agriculture due to climate change. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation, outperforming traditional models in cross-validation. The model reveals significant existing climate adaptation and predicts that holding crop locations constant will result in a 31% profit drop by 2070 under RCP 8.5. Reallocating crops reduces these losses by half (16% loss), but requires significant changes in crop location across 57% of US counties. The findings provide a framework for identifying adaptation opportunities while acknowledging limitations to their potential.

James Rising, Naresh Devineni