Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

This paper investigates the potential of crop switching and relocation to mitigate the economic losses in US agriculture due to climate change. A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation, outperforming traditional models in cross-validation. The model reveals significant existing climate adaptation and predicts that holding crop locations constant will result in a 31% profit drop by 2070 under RCP 8.5. Reallocating crops reduces these losses by half (16% loss), but requires significant changes in crop location across 57% of US counties. The findings provide a framework for identifying adaptation opportunities while acknowledging limitations to their potential.

James Rising, Naresh Devineni