Country-level conditions like prosperity, democracy, and regulatory culture predict individual climate change belief

Despite the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, a significant portion of the global population remains unconvinced. This study analyzes Gallup World Poll data (2007-2010) from 143 countries using a random forest model to determine the predictors of individual climate change belief. Country-level factors such as environmental protection, civil liberties, and economic development strongly predict belief, while individual education and internet access primarily correlate with awareness rather than belief in anthropogenic causes. Non-linear relationships were also identified, and the importance of predictors varied across countries, suggesting unique contextual factors.

Sebastian Levi