Considering socio-political framings when analyzing coastal climate change effects can prevent maldevelopment on small islands

Small low-lying islands and atolls are highly vulnerable to climate change-induced sea-level rise, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and ocean acidification. These impacts threaten the habitability of these islands and the livelihoods of their inhabitants who are heavily reliant on marine resources. Coastal erosion is a significant concern, often exacerbated by poorly planned coastal development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests various adaptation strategies including protection, accommodation, retreat, and ecosystem-based adaptation. However, implementation is complex, particularly in small island developing states (SIDS), often hindered by top-down decision-making processes that fail to integrate local knowledge and expertise. This study investigates the case of Fuvahmulah, a reef island in the Maldives, to examine the interplay between natural processes, societal perceptions, and political decisions in shaping coastal adaptation strategies. Fuvahmulah, situated in the central Indian Ocean, faces increasing risks from sea-level rise and extreme weather events. The Maldivian government's response has largely focused on hard-engineered coastal protection, which often disrupts natural coastal processes and undermines the vital ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. This study aims to understand the dynamics of maladaptive development and proposes sustainable adaptation strategies by incorporating local knowledge and adopting an interdisciplinary approach.

The study reviews existing literature on climate change impacts on small islands, focusing on sea-level rise, storm surges, and swell waves. It examines the morphodynamic response of coastal environments to hydrodynamic pressures and the role of coral reefs in coastal protection. The literature highlights the vulnerability of small island populations and the challenges associated with sustainable coastal development. Previous research has shown that anthropogenic interventions, such as hard coastal protection structures, often disrupt natural processes, leading to negative consequences. The IPCC's response strategies (protection, accommodation, retreat) and their limitations in the context of SIDS are discussed. Existing literature on maladaptation in coastal environments is reviewed, along with the socio-political aspects influencing adaptation decisions in the Maldives. The literature reveals a lack of integration of local knowledge in decision-making processes and the dominance of top-down approaches to coastal development, often leading to repetitive maladaptive actions. The study also considers existing research on the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) framework, which helps understand the chain of causal links behind environmental problems, especially in this case, coastal erosion on Fuvahmulah.

The study utilizes a mixed-methods approach combining natural science and social science methods. The natural science component involves the creation of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) surveys conducted in 2017 and 2019 to quantify coastal erosion. These DEMs provide detailed information on the changes in shoreline position and sediment volumes. Wave climate data from various global hindcast and reanalysis models (CAWCR, NCEP, ECMWF) are used as boundary conditions for numerical wave models (Delft3D and a 2DH Boussinesq-type model). These models simulate sediment transport processes on the reef platform to investigate the impact of the seaport on coastal erosion. The social science component employs a mixed-methods approach involving a literature review, two household surveys (2017 and 2019), and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders at local and national levels. The surveys gather data on local perceptions of environmental issues, attitudes towards coastal protection, and community involvement in decision-making processes. The interviews explore different perspectives on the causes of coastal erosion, the effectiveness of existing coastal management strategies, and the role of local and national governance structures. Qualitative data from surveys and interviews were analyzed using content analysis.

The study finds significant coastal erosion on Fuvahmulah's east coast, particularly adjacent to the recently constructed seaport. Analysis of DEMs shows erosion rates of up to 1.33 m between 2017 and 2019 in the area near the port. Numerical wave models confirm that the seaport infrastructure significantly disrupts natural sediment transport patterns on the reef, leading to increased erosion. The models demonstrate that the seaport acts as a barrier, deflecting wave-induced currents and preventing sediment from reaching the coast. In contrast, the northern part of the coast, characterized by the dynamic Thoondu beach, shows minor accretion. The analysis of wave climate data reveals that waves approach Fuvahmulah predominantly from the southeast and southwest, with higher wave heights during the wet season. Future wave climate projections under different RCP scenarios show no significant changes in wave parameters. Population surveys and interviews reveal contrasting perceptions between the national government and the local community regarding the causes of coastal erosion. The government primarily attributes erosion to climate change and sea-level rise, while the local population strongly links erosion to the construction of the seaport. The surveys indicate a strong preference among residents for greater community involvement in decision-making processes related to island development and coastal protection. The analysis of the EIA process for the coastal protection project reveals a lack of adequate consideration of local knowledge and a bias towards hard-engineered solutions.

The findings highlight the critical role of socio-political framing in shaping coastal adaptation strategies. The case of Fuvahmulah demonstrates how a top-down approach to development, driven by national policy and external funding, can lead to maladaptation and maldevelopment. The construction of the seaport, while intended to improve connectivity and economic opportunities, has resulted in unintended and significant negative consequences for the coastal environment. The study's findings challenge the dominant narrative of attributing coastal erosion solely to climate change and sea-level rise and underscores the need to consider human interventions as significant drivers of change. The contrast between the government's and the community's perceptions of erosion underscores the importance of integrating local knowledge and participatory approaches in decision-making. The study introduces the concept of “maldevelopment,” defined as a socio-political phenomenon that amplifies maladaptation by prioritizing short-term economic or social gains over long-term environmental sustainability. The failure to address the root causes of erosion, as exemplified by the proposed plan to fortify the coastline with further hard-engineered structures, represents a path towards an “anthropogenic tipping point”.

This study demonstrates that considering socio-political framings alongside natural processes is vital for successful coastal climate change adaptation on small islands. The case of Fuvahmulah exemplifies how top-down development decisions, neglecting local knowledge, can lead to maladaptation and maldevelopment. The study emphasizes the need for integrated and participatory approaches, including local expertise and ecological considerations, to prevent further damage to sensitive coastal ecosystems and ensure sustainable development. Future research should focus on developing and implementing dynamic adaptive policy pathways that integrate local knowledge, continuous monitoring, and flexible responses to adapt to evolving conditions.

The study's spatial scope is limited to Fuvahmulah, and the findings may not be generalizable to all small islands. The temporal scale of the study (2017-2019) may not fully capture the long-term impacts of sea-level rise and other climatic factors. The numerical models employed in this study use simplified assumptions and idealizations, which may affect the accuracy of sediment transport calculations. The social science data is based on a sample of the Fuvahmulah population, and the results may not fully reflect the opinions of all residents. The study does not explicitly quantify the economic costs and benefits of different adaptation strategies.