Comparing the ambition of EU companies with science-based targets to EU regulation-imposed reductions

Companies can support governments in bridging the emissions gap between current policies and the Paris goals by adhering to voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets that align with or surpass those implied by domestic policies. To this end, we assessed the potential impact of EU companies that set targets through the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTI) in 2020 relative to an EU reference policies scenario that represents the estimated impact of the ETS and ESR policy instruments applicable at that time, with the aim of achieving a 40% reduction relative to 1990 by 2030. Two scenarios were assessed that incorporate the SBTi targets under these instruments: one assuming no additional reductions in the ETS sector due to the waterbed effect, and one with flanking measures to ensure additional emissions reductions regulated by ETS are materialised. Depending on the assumption made about these flanking measures, EU companies with SBTi-approved targets are projected to achieve a 4% or 14% reduction by 2030 compared to the EU 2020 policies scenario. Our findings illustrate that companies with SBTi-approved targets in 2020 were at most in line or modestly more ambitious than the 40% reduction target. This study highlights that voluntary reductions from SBTI companies regulated by ETS display higher estimated reductions than those solely regulated by ESR. Furthermore, this analysis indicates that more policy details are crucial for assessing the potential additional reduction of voluntary targets, and additional reductions under ETS should be assumed zero if a conservative estimate is required.

Mark Roelfsema, Takeshi Kuramochi, Michel den Elzen