Climate change skepticism poses a significant barrier to effective climate action. Research in developed nations has linked skepticism (regarding existence, causes, and consequences) to socio-demographic characteristics and political ideology. However, understanding of climate-related beliefs in developing countries, particularly Latin America—a region with diverse and vulnerable biomes—remains limited. Existing Latin American research primarily focuses on climate change concern and risk perception, not beliefs themselves. Studies utilizing general surveys often lack dedicated climate change sections, omitting potentially relevant individual-level variables. This knowledge gap is critical because public beliefs shape climate action, and Latin America is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. This study aims to fill this gap by examining individual-level factors shaping beliefs in the existence, anthropogenic causes, and severe consequences of climate change across seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Mexico), representing over 80% of the region's carbon emissions. The study investigates the roles of political ideology, socio-demographic variables (sex, age, education, religion, income, race), and psychological factors (individualism, egalitarianism, New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) values, knowledge, trust in scientists, scientific consensus, and experience with extreme weather events).

Prior research, largely concentrated in advanced democracies, highlights the significant influence of political ideology and demographics on climate change beliefs. However, the generalizability of these findings to developing nations is uncertain. In Latin America, studies have predominantly explored climate change concern and risk perception, neglecting the crucial aspect of beliefs regarding the existence, causes, and consequences of climate change. While some research has touched upon the anthropogenic origins of climate change, a comprehensive analysis encompassing all three dimensions of belief is lacking. Moreover, studies often rely on general surveys without dedicated climate sections, limiting the inclusion of crucial individual-level variables. This limitation is particularly problematic because public beliefs are a critical factor influencing climate action, and Latin America is disproportionately vulnerable to climate change impacts. The current study addresses these gaps by systematically investigating the individual-level factors shaping climate change beliefs across the region.

This study employed online surveys conducted by Netquest, an internet polling company, between October and November 2021, across seven Latin American countries. The sample comprised 5400 participants aged 18 and above, with approximately 830 respondents per country (except Ecuador, with 421). Netquest's methodology includes opt-in recruitment and population quotas to ensure nationally diverse samples, adhering to ISO 26362 standards and ESOMAR guidelines. The questionnaires, initially developed in Portuguese and then translated into Spanish, were pilot-tested in all seven countries. Three key dependent variables measured climate change perceptions: belief in its existence (8-point certainty scale), belief in anthropogenic causes (binary: mainly human-caused vs. other), and belief in negative consequences (11-point scale). Independent variables included psychological factors (subjective and objective knowledge, scientific consensus belief, trust in scientists, NEP values, individualism and egalitarianism worldviews, experience with extreme weather events), political ideology (left-right scale and conservative-progressive scale), and socio-demographic variables (sex, age, education, religion, income, race). Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were employed to assess the relationships between these variables, with robustness checks performed using multilevel models, fixed-effects models, an ordinal logistic model, and binary logistic models. Sample weights were incorporated to account for sample representativeness. Additional robustness checks addressed multicollinearity, joint significance of independent variables, and multiple hypothesis testing using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. Ethical approval was obtained from the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) Ethical Review Committee.

The study revealed a high level of public concern about climate change across Latin America. Over 90% of respondents in all countries believed climate change is happening, and an average of 93% attributed it to human activity. However, opinion was more divided on the severity of climate change consequences, with an average of 65% believing its impacts would be negative. Regarding the correlates of climate change beliefs: * **Belief in the existence of climate change:** Psychological factors were most strongly associated, particularly perceived scientific consensus (β = 0.49), NEP (β = 0.305, although with low reliability (α = 0.53)), and personal experience with extreme weather events (β = 0.232). Political ideology and socio-demographic factors showed weak correlations. Black Latin Americans displayed slightly more skepticism than non-black individuals, but this was significant only in Argentina. * **Belief in anthropogenic climate change:** Individualistic worldviews stood out as the only negative correlate, indicating that stronger individualistic values were associated with reduced likelihood of believing climate change was mainly caused by human activity. Positive correlations were found with objective knowledge, perceived scientific consensus, and trust in scientists, although consistency across countries varied. Again, political ideology and most socio-demographic factors showed weak or no significant associations. Higher education was associated with reduced skepticism. * **Belief in the consequences of climate change:** Individualistic worldviews were strongly and consistently associated with perceiving less negative climate change impacts. Objective knowledge also showed a positive correlation, significant in four out of seven countries. Political ideology showed a positive correlation; individuals on the left were more likely to perceive negative consequences than those on the right, but this was only statistically significant in three countries. Education level was another significant factor, with higher education levels being associated with less skepticism about the consequences of climate change.

The findings highlight the prominent role of individualistic values in shaping climate change skepticism across Latin America, particularly concerning the severity of consequences, but not necessarily the existence or anthropogenic causes. This challenges previous research finding no impact from individualistic worldviews on beliefs about human origins of climate change in the region. The importance of individualistic values relates to the potential for government interventions to mitigate climate change, which individuals with high levels of individualism may resist. The study also revealed the limited influence of political ideology and socio-demographic factors, which contrasts with findings in developed countries. This suggests that the climate change debate in Latin America may not be as highly politicized along typical left-right divides. This also may indicate the relatively low political salience of climate change in the region compared to other social problems. Furthermore, the results show a complex relationship between scientific consensus and climate change beliefs. While scientific consensus significantly influenced belief in the existence of climate change, its influence was weaker for beliefs about causes and consequences. The lack of a strong relationship between trust in scientists and climate change beliefs suggests that perceived scientific consensus is considered more compelling evidence. The finding of a positive relationship between objective knowledge and belief across all dimensions of climate change beliefs reinforces the value of effective climate education.

This study provides unique insights into the determinants of climate change beliefs in Latin America, revealing the significant role of individualistic values and the limited impact of political ideology and socio-demographic factors. These findings offer valuable implications for developing effective climate change communication strategies tailored to the region's cultural context, emphasizing individual benefits and employing trusted messengers within communities. Future research should explore the causal relationships between these variables using experimental designs and investigate broader conceptualizations of individualism, considering the role of ideological liberalism and clarifying the links between personal experience of extreme weather events and attribution of these events to climate change. This study underscores the need for context-specific research on climate change attitudes across the Global South.

The cross-sectional nature of this study prevents the establishment of causal relationships. Endogenous relationships may exist that were not fully accounted for. Future research using experimental designs is needed to establish causality. The study's definition of individualistic values is relatively narrow; exploring broader aspects of this concept could provide deeper insights. The weak association between personal experience with extreme weather events and climate change beliefs could be due to the survey's lack of explicit attribution of weather events to climate change. Future research could address these limitations.