Can we develop a more targeted approach to mitigating seismic risk?

Earthquakes remain among the most destructive natural hazards. Given limited mitigation resources, there is a need to pre-identify localized zones of concentrated seismic risk. The paper proposes a strategy to delineate regional high seismic risk zones at fine resolution and with high confidence by comparing losses derived from two distinct hazard modelling approaches—physics-based simulations and empirical GMPEs—using common exposure and vulnerability inputs. Demonstrated on Mw 7.5 scenarios for the Jiaocheng fault (Shanxi Rift System, China), the delineated zone comprises about 7% of land area yet concentrates roughly 85% of total financial loss. Prioritizing mitigation in such zones, especially in densely populated, seismically active cities, can better align with Sendai Framework disaster risk reduction targets.