Can we develop a more targeted approach to mitigating seismic risk?

Earthquakes remain among the most destructive natural hazards. Given limited mitigation resources, there is a need to pre-identify localized zones of concentrated seismic risk. The paper proposes a strategy to delineate regional high seismic risk zones at fine resolution and with high confidence by comparing losses derived from two distinct hazard modelling approaches—physics-based simulations and empirical GMPEs—using common exposure and vulnerability inputs. Demonstrated on Mw 7.5 scenarios for the Jiaocheng fault (Shanxi Rift System, China), the delineated zone comprises about 7% of land area yet concentrates roughly 85% of total financial loss. Prioritizing mitigation in such zones, especially in densely populated, seismically active cities, can better align with Sendai Framework disaster risk reduction targets.

Danhua Xin, Zhenguo Zhang, Bo Chen, Friedemann Wenzel, Yilong Li, Xiaofei Chen