Atmosphere circulation patterns synchronize pan-Arctic glacier melt and permafrost thaw

The Arctic is changing rapidly due to amplified global temperature trends. Beyond long-term warming, the study focuses on additional impacts driven by atmospheric circulation. Time series of glacier mass balance from GRACE/GRACE-FO (2002–2023), active layer thickness from ESA’s CCI Permafrost product (2003–2019), and CALM in situ measurements (2002–2023) show robust covariations. These vary asynchronously between neighboring regions and synchronously between regions antipodal to the North Pole. The covariations are closely connected to dominant modes of atmospheric circulation that control about 75% of the common pan-Arctic impact variability (2002–2022) and also affect the Greenland Ice Sheet. The results emphasize the need to consider atmospheric driving patterns when projecting impacts, especially extremes, in a warming Arctic.