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Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw

Earth Sciences

Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw

I. Kim, A. Timmermann, et al.

Discover how climate change is leading to a rapid thaw of Arctic-Subarctic permafrost, which may trigger intensified wildfires by the late 21st century. This groundbreaking research by In-Won Kim, Axel Timmermann, Ji-Eun Kim, Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Hanna Lee, and William R. Wieder reveals shocking insights into the consequences of permafrost thaw on future wildfires in western Siberia and Canada.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Unmitigated 21st-century climate change will accelerate Arctic-Subarctic permafrost thaw, potentially intensifying microbial carbon degradation, methane emissions, and global warming. This study investigates the impact of permafrost thaw on future Arctic-Subarctic wildfires using the CESM2 large ensemble under the SSP3-7.0 emission scenario. Analysis of 50 simulations reveals that rapid permafrost thaw leads to soil drying, surface warming, and reduced relative humidity, resulting in nonlinear regime shifts and intensified wildfires in western Siberia and Canada by the late 21st century.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Sep 24, 2024
Authors
In-Won Kim, Axel Timmermann, Ji-Eun Kim, Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Hanna Lee, William R. Wieder
Tags
climate change
permafrost thaw
wildfires
Arctic
microbial carbon degradation
methane emissions
emission scenarios

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