Crop diversification is linked to sustainable agricultural growth and rural livelihoods. It mitigates climate change risks and optimizes land use. Current crop specialization and monoculture negatively impact productivity due to factors like erratic rainfall and diminishing water resources. Farmers are adopting mixed cropping and high-value crops. Market dynamics, technology, agro-climatic conditions, infrastructure, and government policies drive diversification. Karnataka, India's sixth-largest state, has agriculture as a primary occupation for a significant portion of its population. Its economic structure has shifted toward the tertiary sector, resulting in fluctuations in agricultural sector growth. This study analyzes the extent and nature of crop diversification in Karnataka, identifies factors influencing it, and assesses shifts in cropping patterns.

Existing literature extensively explores crop diversification and its connection to development. Studies propose strategies for diversifying land use to enhance sustainable growth and rural livelihoods. The benefits of crop diversification include risk mitigation, optimized land allocation, and counteracting negative consequences of monoculture. It improves resource utilization, nutrient recycling, soil fertility, and economic viability through value-added products. However, climate change (erratic rainfall, diminished water resources) has reduced productivity, leading farmers to adopt intensification techniques and high-value crops. Factors such as market dynamics, technology, agro-climatic conditions, infrastructure, and government policies influence diversification.

This study used data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) for the period 1998-99 to 2020-21. Data included area, production, productivity of various crops, fertilizer consumption, area sown more than once, rainfall, average landholding size, MSP of paddy and coarse cereals, irrigation intensity, agricultural credit, per capita income, power availability, highway length, and number of factories. Crop diversification was assessed using the Composite Entropy Index (CEI). The CEI was calculated for various crop groups (cereals & millets, pulses, sugar crops, etc.). A double log model was used to identify factors influencing crop diversification, with CEI as the dependent variable and factors like fertilizer consumption, rainfall, landholding size, MSP, irrigation intensity, credit, per capita income, infrastructure, and time as independent variables. Markov chain analysis was used to analyze the dynamics of cropping patterns for cereals and millets, pulses, and oilseeds from 1998-99 to 2019-20, focusing on the transition probabilities between different crops within each group and overall crop categories.

The CEI analysis revealed that Kodagu, Dakshina Kannada, Yadgir, Udupi, and Shivamogga districts had low crop diversification. While the state shows a positive trend in crop diversification, the coefficient is near zero, suggesting vulnerability. The double log model indicated that annual rainfall, average landholding size, and per capita Net State Domestic Product negatively influence crop diversification. Conversely, the difference in MSP between coarse cereals and paddy, irrigation intensity, agricultural credit from scheduled commercial banks, and highway length positively influence diversification. The Markov chain analysis showed that while cereals and millets occupy a large share of the cultivated area, they have a negative net gain in the probability of area retention. Similar trends were observed for some oilseeds. The probability of area retention within crop groups varied significantly across different crops within those groups.

The findings highlight the complex interplay of factors affecting crop diversification in Karnataka. The negative relationship between rainfall and diversification suggests that farmers in high-rainfall areas focus on staple crops like paddy. The negative effect of larger landholdings on diversification might be due to risk aversion among larger farmers. The positive influence of MSP, irrigation, credit, and infrastructure suggests that improving these factors is crucial for promoting diversification. The negative net gain in area retention for cereals and millets, despite their large share, highlights potential challenges to their sustainability. The findings underscore the need for policies that address infrastructure gaps, improve access to credit, and provide appropriate price incentives to encourage diversification beyond staple crops.

This study provides valuable insights into crop diversification and cropping pattern dynamics in Karnataka. Low diversification in certain districts and the near-zero coefficient of the overall trend highlight a vulnerability. Key factors influencing diversification include MSP, irrigation, credit, and infrastructure. Future research could explore the impact of specific government policies on diversification, detailed analysis of farmer decision-making processes considering risk and profitability, and a more granular analysis at the farm level.

This study relies on secondary data, which may have limitations in terms of accuracy and completeness. The analysis focuses on aggregate data at the district and state levels, potentially masking variations at the farm level. The Markov chain analysis is limited to a specific time period and may not capture long-term trends accurately.