Agriculture

Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world

A. Ahvo, M. Heino, et al.

Explore the critical impact of agricultural input shocks on food crop production, revealing how fertilizer shortages lead to dramatic yield losses in global maize and wheat. This groundbreaking research, conducted by Aino Ahvo, Matias Heino, Vilma Sandström, Daniel Chrisendo, Mika Jalava, and Matti Kummu, offers essential insights into enhancing the resilience of our global food systems.

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Abstract

The industrialization of agriculture has led to increased dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Shocks in input availability can severely impact food crop production. This study modeled the effects of agricultural input shocks using a random forest machine learning algorithm. Results show fertilizer shocks cause the most significant yield losses. A 50% shock in all inputs could decrease global maize production by up to 26% and wheat production by up to 21%, disproportionately affecting high-yielding areas. The study provides insights into global food system resilience.

Publisher

Nature Food

Published On

Dec 01, 2023

Authors

Aino Ahvo, Matias Heino, Vilma Sandström, Daniel Chrisendo, Mika Jalava, Matti Kummu

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