The COVID-19 pandemic's spread varied drastically across countries and regions. While existing research focused on factors like travel restrictions and transmission strategies, few studies examined the influence of social and cultural factors. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the spread rate of COVID-19 through a cross-country cultural lens. Culture significantly shapes behavior, economic activities, and social norms, influencing responses to crises. East Asian countries, prioritizing obligations and collective welfare, showed higher mask usage compared to the U.S., where individual convenience and freedom are prioritized. This difference in cultural values impacts adherence to lockdown measures and social distancing rules. The study investigates whether collectivistic, Confucian, or tight cultures are associated with lower COVID-19 growth rates and if cultural effects intensify during lockdowns.

Prior studies on the relationship between collectivism and COVID-19 cases yielded mixed results. Webster et al. (2021) found no significant relationship at the country level but a positive relationship at the state level within the United States. Conversely, Jiang et al. (2022) and Maaravi et al. (2021) found that collectivistic societies had fewer COVID-19 cases. This study differentiates itself by focusing on the growth rate of COVID-19 cases rather than the total number of cases, offering a dynamic perspective on the spread and allowing for analysis of when cultural influences become more significant.

The study uses daily COVID-19 case data from Our World in Data and individualism scores from the Hofstede national culture website. The sample includes 190 countries and regions from January 22, 2020, to December 31, 2020, resulting in 55,184 country-day observations. The key dependent variable is the weekly COVID-19 case growth rate, calculated as the difference in the natural logarithm of confirmed cases between a day and the same day a week prior. Collectivistic culture is measured as the reciprocal of the natural logarithm of the Hofstede individualism score. Confucian cultural orientation is captured using a dummy variable, and cultural tightness is considered using data from Gelfand et al. (2011). Control variables included population, age structure, GDP per capita, prior SARS occurrence, smoking prevalence, and religious composition. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis was conducted, controlling for continent and month-level fixed effects. The sample was also divided into lockdown and non-lockdown periods for separate analyses to examine the impact of lockdowns on the relationship between culture and COVID-19 spread.

The study found that countries and regions with higher collectivism scores exhibited lower COVID-19 growth rates. A one-standard deviation increase in the collectivism score was associated with a 1.38% reduction in the weekly growth rate of COVID-19 cases. This effect was even more pronounced during lockdowns, with a 4.04% reduction compared to 1.24% during non-lockdown periods. Countries and regions within the Confucian cultural circle also experienced significantly lower COVID-19 spread rates. Similarly, countries with tighter cultures (strong norms, low tolerance for deviant behavior) had lower spread rates. These findings were consistent when examining COVID-19 death rates. Control variables showed expected relationships with COVID-19 spread: prior SARS experience and higher GDP per capita were associated with lower spread, while larger populations, higher smoking rates, and higher proportions of Muslims were associated with faster spread. Lenient enforcement of government policies was also positively associated with higher COVID-19 spread rates.

The findings strongly support the hypothesis that collectivist, Confucian, and tight cultures are associated with slower COVID-19 spread, particularly during lockdowns. The results highlight the importance of cultural values and norms in shaping responses to public health crises. The stronger effect during lockdowns suggests that culturally informed strategies may enhance the effectiveness of restrictive measures. This study contrasts with some previous research and supports others, underscoring the complexity of factors influencing pandemic spread. The amplified effect of collectivism during lockdowns indicates that successful pandemic responses require tailored approaches that align with cultural contexts.

This study demonstrates a significant association between collectivistic, Confucian, and tight cultures and lower COVID-19 spread and death rates, especially during lockdowns. This emphasizes the need for culturally sensitive public health policies that promote common interests, personal responsibility, and strong social norms. Future research could explore higher-order network effects, dynamic cultural changes over time, and the influence of other cultural dimensions on pandemic outcomes.

The study uses regression models, which might not fully capture the dynamic spread process of COVID-19. Cultural scores are static, while actual cultures evolve. The analysis focuses on specific cultural dimensions, neglecting other potentially influential factors. Data limitations prevented the inclusion of pre-existing medical conditions as a factor in COVID-19 deaths.