This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between tourism and human development in 123 countries (1995–2019) using symbolic time series analysis. The researchers used international tourist arrivals per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI) as measurement variables to determine if higher tourism specialization correlates with higher economic development. Countries were grouped based on similar tourism specialization and HDI trajectories. Results suggest that high tourism specialization countries have higher development levels compared to those with lower specialization. However, a large group of countries showed low tourism specialization and development, indicating a poverty trap. The study concludes that policies promoting tourism expansion, especially in less developed countries funded by international organizations, are needed to escape this trap.

Pablo Juan Cárdenas-García, Juan Gabriel Brida, Verónica Segarra