A framework to assess permafrost thaw threat for land transportation infrastructure in northern Canada

This paper presents a data-driven framework for predicting permafrost thaw threats to land transportation infrastructure in northern Canada. The framework uses LSTM models to predict ground surface temperatures based on climate variables from reanalysis products and regional climate models. Permafrost thaw threat is assessed for three case studies: Hudson Bay Railway, Mackenzie Northern Railway, and Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway. Results predict ground surface warming in all areas under moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, indicating existing threats, particularly in northern sections of the Hudson Bay Railway and Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway.

Ali Fatolahzadeh Gheysari, Pooneh Maghoul