Transportation

Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world

K. Liu, Q. Wang, et al.

This groundbreaking study examines how global transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to shifts in precipitation patterns due to climate change. With significant decreases in extreme rainfall design return periods forecasted, the authors propose innovative solutions for infrastructure resilience. Conducted by Kai Liu, Qianzhi Wang, Ming Wang, and Elco E. Koks, this research underscores the urgent need for adaptive measures in infrastructure design.

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Abstract

This study comprehensively analyzes the exposure of road and railway infrastructure assets to changes in precipitation return periods globally. Under a -2 degrees warming scenario by mid-century (RCP 8.5), 43.6% of global transportation assets are expected to experience at least a 25% decrease in extreme rainfall design return period. This increases to 69.9% under a -4 degrees warming scenario by the late 21st century. To mitigate this, the study proposes incorporating a safety factor for climate change adaptation during infrastructure design. A safety factor of 1.2 is suggested for most regions under the RCP4.5 scenario.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

May 03, 2023

Authors

Kai Liu, Qianzhi Wang, Ming Wang, Elco E. Koks

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