This study analyzes the impact of heat on wheat yields in South Africa using daily weather information and a dryland wheat dataset for 71 cultivars across 17 locations from 1998 to 2014. Extreme heat significantly reduces yields, with an additional 24 hours above 30°C associated with a 12.5% reduction. Uniform warming scenarios predict yield reductions of 8.5%, 18.4%, and 28.5% under +1°C, +2°C, and +3°C warming, respectively. Variability in heat effects across cultivars suggests potential for adaptation through breeding programs.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Sep 02, 2020
Authors
Aaron M. Shew, Jesse B. Tack, Lawton L. Nalley, Petronella Chaminuka
Tags
wheat yield
extreme heat
climate change
cultivar adaptation
South Africa
agricultural economics
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