Warming climate is helping human beings run faster, jump higher and throw farther through less dense air

The study examines whether rising ambient temperatures associated with climate change can positively affect human performance in anaerobic athletic events, challenging the conventional understanding that warming degrades human activity, health and endurance performance. Prior work has documented negative impacts of higher temperatures on labor capacity, mortality, and endurance sports (e.g., marathons), and raised concerns about athlete health and event viability under warming. However, effects on anaerobic events (duration <90 s, e.g., 100 m sprint) have received limited attention. The purpose is to quantify the relationship between ambient weather (especially temperature) and elite performance across anaerobic track and field events, assess the contribution of meteorological factors relative to non-weather covariates, elucidate mechanisms (air density/drag), and project potential performance changes under future warming scenarios.

Existing literature indicates that increased air temperature worsens endurance performance (e.g., marathon pacing and outcomes) and heightens health risks, potentially threatening major sporting events. Aerodynamic impacts of wind and altitude on sprints and jumps have been analyzed previously, showing wind assistance benefits and altitude-related improvements due to reduced air density. However, systematic assessments of ambient temperature’s role in anaerobic events are sparse. The present study builds on prior wind and altitude analyses, integrates comprehensive meteorological variables (temperature, pressure, humidity, wind), and extends to climate projections to evaluate warming impacts on anaerobic performance.

Data and events: Performance data for the current world-top 20 competitors in each of 26 anaerobic athletics events (sprints: 100 m, 200 m, 400 m; hurdles: 100 mH women, 110 mH men, 400 mH men/women; jumps: long jump, triple jump, high jump, pole vault; throws: shot put, discus, javelin, hammer throw) during 2019–2021 were collected from World Athletics (https://worldathletics.org). For 100 m, 200 m, 100/110 m hurdles, long jump and triple jump, stadium wind speeds were available. Meteorology: Ambient temperature, dew point, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity were obtained from the nearest ISD weather stations (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/global-hourly/isd), averaged over 09:00–22:00 local time on competition days. If data quality at the nearest station was insufficient, the next closest station was used; otherwise the record was excluded. Relative humidity was computed from temperature and dew point via Magnus-type formulae; surface pressure was derived from sea-level pressure, station altitude and temperature using a standard hydrostatic model with lapse rate 6.5 °C km−1. Anomalies and covariates: To remove inter-athlete and inter-year performance baselines, finishing times, distances and heights were converted to anomalies by subtracting each athlete’s annual mean. Meteorological variables were likewise expressed as anomalies. Additional covariates included competition round, athlete sex, age, annual mean performance (AMP; as a proxy for competitive level), and climatological mean temperature at the capital city of each athlete’s country (TC; as a proxy for acclimatization/nationality climate). Statistical modeling: Multiple linear regression related performance anomalies to meteorological anomalies (temperature, tailwind, pressure, humidity) and covariates (AMP, round, sex, age, TC), assessing significance (P-values). Restricted cubic generalized linear models (GLM/reg-GLM) were used to visualize potentially nonlinear relations between performance and single meteorological variables while conditioning on others as covariates. Random forest regression was trained on 2/3 of 100 m results (2019–2021) and tested on the remaining 1/3 to evaluate predictive contributions of weather variables (tailwind V, temperature T, humidity H, pressure P) with other factors as covariates, reporting correlation coefficients between predicted and observed anomalies. Climate projections: Using bias-corrected CMIP6 historical simulations (1979–2014) and future projections under SSP245 and SSP585 (2015–2100), the study computed temperature-conditioned performance projections (TCPP) for 11 events (excluding javelin and discus due to weak temperature-performance links). The analysis assumed the spatial-temporal distribution of competitions from 2019–2021 repeated each year through 2100, enabling estimation of historical and future performance shifts attributable to warming. Mechanism analysis: Using the ideal gas law (p = R ρ T) and aerodynamic relationships, the study quantified how increased temperature (and decreased pressure) reduces air density and drag. Three estimation approaches were used: (1) mapping observed tailwind–performance sensitivity to equivalent drag reduction from temperature-induced density changes; (2) extrapolating energy cost fractions attributable to air resistance; (3) relating altitude/pressure-induced density changes to performance to infer the fraction of temperature effects mediated by air-density changes.

- Ambient temperature is significantly related to performance in 12 of 13 anaerobic events (P < 0.05), with performance improving as temperature rises. Exceptions: javelin throw and discus throw show no significant relationship with meteorological variables. - 100 m sprint: Performance improves monotonically with temperature; example cited improvement is 0.26 s as ambient temperature rises from 11.8 °C to 14.6 °C. The temperature–performance relation is near-linear and significant (P < 0.01). Tailwind also strongly improves performance; atmospheric pressure decreases generally improve performance (via reduced air density), while relative humidity effects are weak and often nonsignificant. - Multiple linear regression (Table 1): Temperature coefficients are significant and favorable for key sprints and hurdles (e.g., 100 m, 200 m, 400 m, hurdles), tailwind shows significant beneficial effects for events with wind records, and lower pressure generally improves sprint/hurdle and jump performances. Competition round often worsens performance (fatigue/cumulative effort). Sex, age, AMP, and TC show no consistent significant relationships across events. - Random forest (Table 2): For 100 m, tailwind is the most predictive single weather variable (CC ≈ 0.51 mixed-sex), followed by temperature (CC ≈ 0.28); humidity and pressure have smaller contributions. Combining variables improves prediction (e.g., V+T CC ≈ 0.62; V+T+H+P CC ≈ 0.65), indicating a substantial fraction of performance variability is attributable to weather. - Pressure effects across 12 events: 9/12 events improve as pressure decreases, with mean improvement rate ≈0.58% per 100 hPa decrease (ranging 0.20%–0.82%). Exceptions: shot put (small drag), javelin and discus (lift-dominated aerodynamics) show weak or adverse relations. - Projections (CMIP6): Warming improves TCPP in 11 of 13 events. Under SSP585, TCPP improvement during 2014–2100 ranges from ~0.19% (shot put) to ~0.68% (high jump); from 1979–2100, 0.27%–0.88%. For 100 m, improvements are 0.59% (≈0.063 s) under high emissions and 0.32% (≈0.034 s) under medium emissions over 1979–2100. The magnitude is competitive-relevant (e.g., differences between medal positions or recent world record increments). - Mechanism attribution: Increased temperature reduces air density, lowering aerodynamic drag on athletes and implements. Quantitative estimates suggest roughly a quarter to a third (~24%–36%; about 31% cited) of the temperature-associated performance improvement is mediated by reduced air density/drag, with the remainder attributable to other processes (including physiology).

The findings demonstrate a robust, monotonic improvement of elite anaerobic athletics performance with higher ambient temperature across most events, contrasting with the well-documented detrimental effects of heat on endurance performance and broader public health. The consistency across sprints, hurdles, jumps, and hammer throw, coupled with significant tailwind and low-pressure benefits, highlights a common aerodynamic mechanism: warmed, expanded air reduces density and thus drag, aiding performance. Model-based attribution and multiple analytical approaches suggest that decreased drag accounts for a substantial fraction of the temperature effect, with additional contributions from physiological and biomechanical responses relevant to anaerobic effort. Climate projections indicate that ongoing warming could yield modest but competitively meaningful improvements globally in anaerobic event performances through the end of the century. The results may extend to other sports and activities with similar aerodynamic and anaerobic characteristics (e.g., cycling, certain climbing activities), though implications for athlete health, event safety, and fairness (e.g., environmental standardization) must be considered.

This study provides evidence that warming ambient temperatures improve performance in most anaerobic athletics events among world-top competitors, primarily through reduced air density and drag, with additional contributions from non-aerodynamic factors. Using observations, statistical and machine-learning models, and climate projections, the work quantifies present-day weather–performance relationships and projects future gains under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, including 0.59% (≈0.063 s) potential improvement in the 100 m under high emissions by 2100. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions that warming uniformly degrades human performance, highlighting nuanced, event-specific responses. Future research should refine microclimate measurement at venues (including in-stadium meteorology and body-environment interactions), expand datasets beyond 2019–2021 and top-20 athletes, better isolate physiological vs aerodynamic pathways, and assess thresholds beyond which heat stress negates aerodynamic benefits.

- Temporal and sample scope: Athlete data limited to top-20 competitors per event during 2019–2021; generalizability to broader athlete populations and other periods is uncertain. - Meteorological representation: Weather conditions derived from nearby stations and averaged over 09:00–22:00 may not capture in-stadium microclimates or exact competition times. - Measurement/processing constraints: Some variables (e.g., humidity, pressure) show weaker or nonlinear effects with potential residual confounding; rounds and contextual factors may not be fully controlled. - Event-specific aerodynamics: Javelin and discus (lift-dominated) show weak or adverse temperature/pressure relationships, limiting extrapolation. - Projection assumptions: TCPP projections assume fixed event locations, dates, and distributions from 2019–2021 repeated through 2100; biases in climate models and bias-correction remain. - Attribution uncertainty: Estimated fraction of temperature benefits due to drag reduction varies by method; physiological responses to heat and potential health risks are not directly measured.