Vietnamese online media leaders’ and citizens’ perspectives on Vietnam-US relations

This research investigates the perspectives of Vietnamese leaders and citizens on Vietnam-US relations, a topic largely unexplored in previous studies. While numerous scholarly works analyze specific aspects of the bilateral relationship (politics, military, economy, culture), a gap exists in understanding public and media opinion, particularly through the lens of online media, the dominant form of communication in Vietnam. The study examines the historical evolution of the relationship, focusing on three key areas: military and security cooperation, economic and trade cooperation, and cooperation in the medical field. The research aims to contribute to global understanding of Vietnamese society and the significant shift in the Vietnam-US relationship before the September 2023 announcement elevating relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This unexpected elevation of the relationship highlights the escalating support for stronger ties from both leaders and the public, prompting a deeper examination of the dynamics at play. The study addresses the question of whether the comprehensive partnership needed upgrading and how Vietnamese public opinion is expressed online.

Prior research on Vietnam-US relations from 1995 onwards lacks focus on the attitudes of state leaders and journalists, as well as articles reflecting public views. A 2020 study by the Vietnam Institute of Americas Studies on social attitudes toward Vietnam-US relations remains largely unanalyzed. This research fills this gap by analyzing online news, recognizing its significant impact on shaping Vietnam's foreign policy toward the US. Existing qualitative studies have examined the relationship across diverse domains (politics, military, education, economy, culture), but a comprehensive assessment of public opinion via online media is missing. This paper therefore contributes by analyzing the attitudes expressed in Vietnamese online media before the recent policy shift.

The study employs both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The qualitative analysis focuses on themes representing crucial areas of Vietnam-US relations (defense security, economy-trade, health), utilizing a historical and logical presentation. The quantitative analysis reinforces the qualitative findings. Articles were collected from LexisNexis (initially 5530 articles, refined to 113 relevant articles published between 2021 and 2022 in Vietnamese) and categorized into political, economic, social, and cultural groups. The analysis counted words expressing support or opposition to upgrading the relationship. Variables such as “upgrade,” “improve,” “strengthen,” “promote,” “difficulty,” “hindrance,” “prohibition,” “negativity,” and “harassment” were used for coding. SPSS software analyzed the data to determine the relationship between independent variables (publication time, publisher type, sector, word counts for support/opposition) and the dependent variable, the behavior level towards upgrading the relationship (for, against, unclear). The quantitative approach uses hypothesis testing (Chi-Square test) to determine correlations between these variables and behavior.

Qualitative analysis of official statements from Vietnamese and American leaders revealed clear support from the US side for upgrading the relationship to a strategic partnership. The Vietnamese side, while supportive, exhibited a more cautious approach. Quantitative analysis of 113 articles confirmed widespread support in Vietnamese online media for improving relations. The strongest support (81%) was in the political field, with state-run media showing the highest level of support (82.7%). The study demonstrated that there is a significant positive relationship between the sector (economic, political, cultural, social) and the level of support for upgrading Vietnam-US relations. Support for strengthening the relationship was evident across all sectors analyzed. The study confirmed the hypothesis that Vietnamese online articles predominantly support upgrading Vietnam-US relations. The unexpected speed of the September 2023 announcement of a comprehensive strategic partnership surprised some in Vietnam, creating a need for further research into the underlying reasons for this.

The findings highlight the strong convergence of political beliefs between Vietnam and the US, justifying the push for an elevated relationship. The consistent support for stronger ties shown across various sectors (political, economic, social, and cultural) and media types (state-run and other organizations) demonstrates a broad consensus among Vietnamese leaders and citizens. This convergence is further driven by shared security concerns in the South China Sea and technological competition between the US and China. The study's limitations regarding the simplistic Chi-Square test for analysis do not diminish the overall evidence of widespread support among the Vietnamese public for a stronger relationship with the United States. The unexpected transition to a comprehensive strategic partnership in September 2023 points to underlying complexities and unstated considerations, requiring further exploration. The study successfully addressed the research questions, demonstrating a strong desire for improved relations among both leaders and the public.

The study demonstrates substantial support for enhanced Vietnam-US relations from Vietnamese leaders and citizens, as reflected in both qualitative analysis of statements and quantitative analysis of online media content. The swift shift to a comprehensive strategic partnership, while surprising to some, underlines the underlying strength of the bilateral relationship. Future research should explore the nuanced reasons behind the unanticipated acceleration of the relationship upgrade, investigating the roles of domestic politics, international relations, and public opinion more deeply. Further investigation is needed to better understand the dynamics of public opinion in Vietnam and how it interacts with governmental decision-making.

The study's reliance on a Chi-Square test may be insufficient to capture the complexities and nuances of the non-linear and time-series nature of Vietnamese public attitudes toward US relations. The limited number of articles analyzed (113) might not fully represent the range of opinions present in Vietnamese online media. The study focuses primarily on Vietnamese perspectives; including American perspectives would offer a more comprehensive understanding of the bilateral dynamics. The analysis primarily uses keywords which might miss subtle connotations. Finally, the study does not explore the potential impact of the September 10, 2023, announcement on public opinion.