Vietnamese online media leaders’ and citizens’ perspectives on Vietnam-US relations

The study identifies a gap in research on Vietnam-US relations: limited attention to the attitudes or beliefs of state leaders and journalists (whose articles reflect public views) about the level of relations between the two countries. Aside from an unprocessed 2020 survey by the Vietnam Institute of Americas Studies, there has been no specific research in Vietnam examining how press coverage—revealing the attitudes of journalists and the general populace—affects Vietnam’s policy adjustments toward the United States. In Vietnam, online newspapers are the most effective communication channel compared with traditional media. While many qualitative studies examine Vietnam-US ties across politics, military, education, economy, and culture, further investigation is warranted into citizens’ and institutions’ perspectives as expressed through Vietnamese online media about contemporary Vietnam-US dynamics. Consequently, this article examines Vietnam-US relations through leaders’ perspectives and Vietnamese people’s views as expressed in online press prior to the recent upgrade of relations. It focuses on the historical evolution from adversaries to comprehensive partners and explores future trajectories, emphasizing three key areas: military and security cooperation, economic and trade cooperation, and the medical field. The article is structured in two parts: an in-depth examination of state-led areas of cooperation, and an assessment of online articles’ textual content to infer journalists’ and citizens’ attitudes. These combined outcomes support the article’s conclusions.

The article notes the paucity of prior work directly addressing leaders’ and journalists’ attitudes toward Vietnam-US relations, despite the recognized influence of press coverage on policy. It references studies highlighting the dominance of online newspapers in Vietnam’s communication ecosystem and draws on qualitative literature covering political, military, educational, economic, cultural, and other dimensions of Vietnam-US relations. However, it identifies a clear gap: little research examines public and elite attitudes as manifested in Vietnamese online media regarding the current trajectory of bilateral ties. This gap motivates the article’s mixed-methods approach to analyze both elite signaling and media content reflecting public sentiment.

The study employs a mixed-methods design combining qualitative thematic analysis and quantitative content analysis. Qualitative analysis: The authors examine key domains of Vietnam-US relations—defense and security, economy and trade, health—using official statements, policy documents, and reporting to trace context, drivers, and leaders’ attitudes. Quantitative content analysis: Media data were sourced primarily from reputable Vietnamese online outlets. A random collection from LexisNexis yielded 5,530 items (2021–2022) using Vietnamese-language keywords related to Vietnam–US relations (e.g., “Vietnam America,” “Vietnam USA”). Applying filters (publication type: Newspapers/Newswires/Industry Trade Press/Magazines/Webnews; location: Vietnam; language: Vietnamese; subject: Government & Public Administration or International Relations & National Security; geography: Vietnam) and manual relevance screening (necessitated by Vietnamese language complexity and polysemy), the final sample comprised 113 articles. Coding scheme: Articles were categorized by month (Apr–Jul), publisher class (State vs. other organizations), and sector (Economics, Politics including defense/security, Culture including health, Society). Content was coded by the presence of lexical indicators of support for upgrading relations (e.g., nâng cấp/upgrade; cải thiện/improve; tăng cường/strengthen; thúc đẩy/promote) and opposition or reservations (e.g., khó khăn/difficulty; cản trở/hindrance; ngăn cản/prohibition; tiêu cực/negativity; phiền nhiễu/harassment). Attitudes were classified as for, against, or unclear. Data processing: Word counts and categorical codings were entered into SPSS. Descriptive statistics were computed, and relationships between independent variables (month, class, sector, supportive/opposing word counts) and the dependent variable (behaviour level: for/against/unclear) were assessed using chi-square tests and cross-tabulations. The approach follows big-data content analysis principles (Theocharis & Jungherr, 2021; Rich et al., 2018) adapted to Vietnamese-language media, with intensive manual validation to address linguistic ambiguity.

• Strategic context and leadership signals: Following high-level engagements (e.g., Blinken’s 2023 visit and the March 29, 2023 phone call between Nguyen Phu Trong and Joe Biden), Vietnam and the United States announced on September 10, 2023 the elevation of ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership—surprising the public but consistent with growing elite support on both sides. - Defense and security cooperation: Since normalization, cooperation has deepened across frameworks (e.g., Defense Policy Dialogue since 2010; ADMM+ participation). From 2015–2019, the US approved US$32.3 million in Direct Commercial Sales and over US$162 million in foreign military transactions to Vietnam. From 2017–2021, Vietnam received approximately US$60 million in bilateral security assistance via FMF and over US$20 million via SAMSI; in FY2018 an additional US$81.5 million FMF supported the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Notable defense transfers include Hamilton-class coast guard ships (2017, 2020) and Metal Shark patrol boats. The US has funded UXO removal since 1993 (>US$166 million) and supported Vietnam’s UN peacekeeping deployments. - Economic and trade cooperation: Bilateral trade expanded from US$450 million (1995) to over US$111 billion (2021); the US is Vietnam’s largest export market and Vietnam is the US’s 9th largest trading partner. The US has nearly 1,150 active projects in Vietnam with over US$10.3 billion registered capital (ranked 11th among 141 investing economies). Vietnam’s exports to the US grew over 24% in 2021; US exports to Vietnam grew nearly 14%. - Health cooperation: Since normalization, the US has provided over US$1.8 billion in support to Vietnam, including over US$925 million for health. USAID has supported more than one million people with disabilities (over US$125 million). Vietnam has received over US$800 million via PEPFAR for HIV/AIDS; the CDC has supported TB programs since 1997 and influenza surveillance since 2005 (including two National Influenza Centers). During COVID-19, the US provided more than US$13 million in assistance, 100 ventilators, and 29.1 million vaccine doses; Vietnam donated masks to the US. The CDC opened its Southeast Asia Regional Office in Vietnam. - Quantitative media analysis (n=113): Overall, 88/113 articles (77.9%) supported upgrading relations; 23/113 (20.4%) were unclear; 2/113 (1.8%) opposed. Support was strong across sectors, highest in Politics (81.0% for), with support also in Economics, Culture, and Society. By publisher class, state-run media showed 82.7% support versus 68.4% in other organizations. Chi-square tests indicated relationships between sector and behavior level, and between class and behavior level, consistent with broad pro-upgrade attitudes in Vietnamese online media.

The findings address the research questions by showing convergence between elite preferences and public-facing media attitudes supporting an upgrade of Vietnam-US relations. Qualitative evidence demonstrates sustained US interest in deepening ties—driven by Indo-Pacific strategy, freedom of navigation, maritime security, technology competition, and regional stability—while Vietnam signals openness consistent with its defense White Paper’s “Four Nos,” emphasizing sovereignty and cautious, interest-based cooperation. Economic complementarities and robust health cooperation further anchor the relationship. Quantitative analysis of Vietnamese online media indicates that a large majority of articles favor upgrading ties, especially in political reporting and within state media, suggesting an alignment of public communication with strategic considerations. The September 10, 2023 upgrade to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, though surprising in timing and level to the public, aligns with the upward trajectory evidenced in both leadership signals and media sentiment. The results suggest that public discourse and elite diplomacy have mutually reinforced the deepening of the bilateral relationship.

The relationship between Vietnam and the United States has expanded across defense, security, political-diplomatic, economic, health, and war-legacy remediation, and now extends to climate change and digital transformation. The United States increasingly treats Vietnam as an equal and responsible partner in sustainable regional development, while Vietnam sees the US as a most important partner. Both sides seek to elevate ties, a path supported by qualitative evidence and quantitative media analysis of 2021–2022 articles. The study finds clear support from heads of state and across Vietnamese online media (state and socio-political organizations). The shift to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was a deliberate leadership decision, kept confidential, whose abrupt announcement surprised the public. Further research should examine American public attitudes and incorporate additional criteria and methods to analyze evolving sentiments on both sides.

Methodologically, the study’s reliance on a limited sample (113 articles) derived from an initial 5,530 LexisNexis items and the complexities of Vietnamese language (polysemy and context-dependent meanings) required extensive manual screening and coding, which may introduce selection bias. The non-linear and time-varying nature of public/media attitudes limits the persuasiveness of simple chi-square tests; more sophisticated time-series or modeling approaches could improve inference. The temporal window (2021–2022) and focus on Vietnamese online media constrain generalizability, and automated word counts may not fully capture nuanced sentiment or context.