Urbanization inequality: evidence from vehicle ownership in Chinese cities

Unequal outcomes resulting from urbanization can pose a significant challenge to sustainable development. Vehicles are an important urbanization dimension as a critical component of urban infrastructure by providing mobility and accessibility to social services. China's vehicle ownership (referred to as in-use vehicle stocks) has been growing quickly since 2000, but its per capita stocks are still much lower than that in developed economies. This raises the question of whether and when China's vehicle stocks will reach a peak level close to that in the developed countries. By analyzing vehicle stocks in 283 Chinese cities during 2001–2018, we have the following findings: (1) vehicle stocks are predominantly distributed in northern and eastern coastal cities and provincial capital cities; (2) inequality in vehicle ownership rates between cities shows a declining trend at both national and region scales; (3) the growth of vehicle ownership rates follows an S-shape curve and most cities are still at the early stage of motorization; (4) China is likely to have a lower saturation level of vehicle ownership rate. These results could help to accurately forecast future vehicle demand in China, estimate the resulting environmental impacts, and explore strategies to achieve carbon neutrality in transportation.

Linlin Duan, Lulu Song, Wanjun Wang, Xiaomei Jian, Reinout Heijungs, Wei-Qiang Chen