Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure

This study investigates the nonlinear effects of hydrological risks on migration dynamics in 46,776 global subnational units. Using remote sensing, globally consistent metrics of hydrological intrusion exposure (HIE) were created, encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The study finds that exposure is the primary migration driver, exceeding socioeconomic factors, and that surrounding disparities intensified this impact. Vulnerable groups, particularly the economically disadvantaged and elderly, tend to remain in high-risk areas, with the economically disadvantaged migrating primarily to proximate locations. Nonlinear analysis reveals an S-shaped trajectory for hydrological exposure, transitioning from resistance to migration and culminating in entrapment, highlighting the role of settlement resilience and adaptability.

Renlu Qiao, Shuo Gao, Xiaochang Liu, Li Xia, Guobin Zhang, Xi Meng, Zhiyu Liu, Mo Wang, Shiqi Zhou, Zhiqiang Wu