Medicine and Health

Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

M. Sharma, S. Mindermann, et al.

European governments utilized non-pharmaceutical interventions during the second COVID-19 wave. This research evaluates the effectiveness of 17 NPIs, revealing that while measures like business closures and gathering bans aided in reducing transmission, their impact was not as strong as in the first wave. Conducted by a diverse group of authors from various prestigious institutions, the findings offer valuable insights into public health strategies.

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Abstract

European governments employed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curb resurging COVID-19 waves. This study estimates the effectiveness of 17 NPIs during Europe's second wave using subnational case and death data, a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model, and a comprehensive dataset of NPI implementation dates. While business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, their impact was less pronounced than in the first wave, likely due to organizational safety measures and individual protective behaviors. Second-wave estimates proved superior to previous ones in predicting transmission during the third wave.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 05, 2021

Authors

Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, Charlie Rogers-Smith, Gavin Leech, Benedict Snodin, Janvi Ahuja, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, George Altman, Gurpreet Dhaliwal, Lukas Finnveden, Alexander John Norman, Sebastian B. Oehm, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Laurence Aitchison, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Thomas Mellan, Jan Kulveit, Leonid Chindelevitch, Seth Flaxman, Yarin Gal, Swapnil Mishra, Samir Bhatt, Jan Markus Brauner

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