Environmental Studies and Forestry

Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

E. J. M. Bacca, M. Stevanović, et al.

Explore how a global land system model, MAgPIE, reveals the dynamic interplay of land-use adaptation costs under various emissions scenarios. This research, conducted by Edna J. Molina Bacca and colleagues, uncovers the challenges in effective adaptation planning due to high variance in high-emissions impact projections.

00:00

Playback language: English

Index

Abstract

This study uses a global land system model (MAgPIE) to assess land-use adaptation and its cost under different crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization effects. Under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6), land-use changes are slight, and costs are near zero. For a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), adaptation involves cropland area changes and technological investments, with costs ranging from -1.5 to +19 US$/ton of dry matter per year. High variance among high-emissions impact projections hinders effective adaptation planning.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Aug 10, 2023

Authors

Edna J. Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Kristine Karstens, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Debbora Leip, Christoph Müller, Sara Minoli, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christian Folberth, Toshichika lizumi, Atul K. Jain, Wenfeng Liu, Masashi Okada, Andrew Smerald, Florian Zabel, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp

Related Publications

Explore these studies to deepen your understanding of the subject.

Agriculture

Interaction of liming and long-term fertilization increased crop yield and phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) through mediating exchangeable cations in acidic soil under wheat-maize cropping system

M. Qaswar, L. Dongchu, et al.

Agriculture

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

K. Kornhuber, C. Lesk, et al.

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Coral reefs benefit from reduced land-sea impacts under ocean warming

J. M. Gove, G. J. Williams, et al.

Environmental Studies and Forestry

The time since land-use transition drives changes in fire activity in the Amazon-Cerrado region

A. F. S. Ribeiro, L. Santos, et al.

Listen, Learn & Level Up

Over 10,000 hours of research content in 25+ fields, available in 12+ languages.

No more digging through PDFs, just hit play and absorb the world's latest research in your language, on your time.

listen to research audio papers with researchbunny