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Abstract
This study uses a global land system model (MAgPIE) to assess land-use adaptation and its cost under different crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization effects. Under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6), land-use changes are slight, and costs are near zero. For a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), adaptation involves cropland area changes and technological investments, with costs ranging from -1.5 to +19 US$/ton of dry matter per year. High variance among high-emissions impact projections hinders effective adaptation planning.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Aug 10, 2023
Authors
Edna J. Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Kristine Karstens, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Debbora Leip, Christoph Müller, Sara Minoli, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christian Folberth, Toshichika lizumi, Atul K. Jain, Wenfeng Liu, Masashi Okada, Andrew Smerald, Florian Zabel, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp
Tags
land-use adaptation
cost assessment
emissions scenarios
MAgPIE model
CO2 fertilization
crop projections
adaptation planning

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