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Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

E. J. M. Bacca, M. Stevanović, et al.

Explore how a global land system model, MAgPIE, reveals the dynamic interplay of land-use adaptation costs under various emissions scenarios. This research, conducted by Edna J. Molina Bacca and colleagues, uncovers the challenges in effective adaptation planning due to high variance in high-emissions impact projections.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study uses a global land system model (MAgPIE) to assess land-use adaptation and its cost under different crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization effects. Under a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6), land-use changes are slight, and costs are near zero. For a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), adaptation involves cropland area changes and technological investments, with costs ranging from -1.5 to +19 US$/ton of dry matter per year. High variance among high-emissions impact projections hinders effective adaptation planning.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Aug 10, 2023
Authors
Edna J. Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Kristine Karstens, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Debbora Leip, Christoph Müller, Sara Minoli, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christian Folberth, Toshichika lizumi, Atul K. Jain, Wenfeng Liu, Masashi Okada, Andrew Smerald, Florian Zabel, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp
Tags
land-use adaptation
cost assessment
emissions scenarios
MAgPIE model
CO2 fertilization
crop projections
adaptation planning

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