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Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035

Medicine and Health

Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035

E. C. Leasid, D. R. Trinidad, et al.

This research by Eric C Leasid, Dennis R Trinidad, John P Pierce, Sara B Mcmenamin, and Karen Messer offers a compelling forecast of cigarette consumption in the United States through 2035. With insights drawn from 70 years of data, it reveals alarming state-specific trends and underscores a rising inequity in consumption rates that demands targeted tobacco control strategies.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This research paper projects cigarette consumption in the United States until 2035, incorporating state-specific smoking trends. Using 70 years of data (1950-2020), the study employs ARIMA models to forecast per capita cigarette consumption. Results reveal a significant variation in decline rates across states, leading to increasing consumption inequity. The projections suggest that only a few states are likely to reach very low consumption levels by 2035, highlighting the need for state-specific tobacco control strategies.
Publisher
PLOS ONE
Published On
Mar 13, 2023
Authors
Eric C Leasid, Dennis R Trinidad, John P Pierce, Sara B Mcmenamin, Karen Messer
Tags
cigarette consumption
United States
ARIMA models
smoking trends
tobacco control
inequity
forecasting

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