This research paper projects cigarette consumption in the United States until 2035, incorporating state-specific smoking trends. Using 70 years of data (1950-2020), the study employs ARIMA models to forecast per capita cigarette consumption. Results reveal a significant variation in decline rates across states, leading to increasing consumption inequity. The projections suggest that only a few states are likely to reach very low consumption levels by 2035, highlighting the need for state-specific tobacco control strategies.
Publisher
PLOS ONE
Published On
Mar 13, 2023
Authors
Eric C Leasid, Dennis R Trinidad, John P Pierce, Sara B Mcmenamin, Karen Messer
Tags
cigarette consumption
United States
ARIMA models
smoking trends
tobacco control
inequity
forecasting
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