Tracing China's diplomatic transition to wolf warrior diplomacy and its implications

This study analyzes the evolution of China's diplomacy from a peaceful, low-profile approach to the more assertive and confrontational “wolf warrior” style. The term is derived from a popular Chinese action film series and reflects a shift in diplomatic strategy characterized by aggressive rhetoric, public confrontations, and a willingness to push back against criticism. This study focuses on the implications of this shift for China's global status, particularly within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research examines the transition from Deng Xiaoping's “hide your strength, bide your time” strategy to the current wolf warrior approach, highlighting the differences in rhetoric, engagement, and the use of economic and political power. The study uses a qualitative case study approach, analyzing three specific incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic to understand the underlying motivations and ramifications of this aggressive diplomatic shift. Understanding this transition is crucial due to China's increasing global influence and the ongoing strategic competition between China and the United States. The study aims to provide an incisive analysis of the ‘wolf warrior’ phenomenon, going beyond foundational understandings to capture the dynamics and underpinnings of this shift in China's diplomatic strategy.

The study frames China's diplomatic shift through the lens of Power Transition Theory, which posits that conflicts are more likely when a rising power is poised to surpass a dominant power. China's economic, military, and technological growth places it within this framework, with the assertive wolf warrior diplomacy seen as a response to both internal dynamics (rising nationalism) and perceived external threats (a constraining US-led order). The study also reviews prior literature on China's peaceful diplomacy era (1990s-early 2000s), characterized by a focus on peaceful development, cooperation, and non-interference. This era included the ‘peaceful rise’ narrative and adherence to the ‘Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence.’ The literature review considers the various interpretations of China's earlier diplomatic practices, acknowledging both the publicly espoused principles and the more pragmatic and assertive actions.

The research employs a qualitative case study approach, analyzing three incidents of wolf warrior diplomacy during the COVID-19 pandemic: 1. **The Twitter spat between Zhao Lijian and the U.S. State Department:** This case examines Zhao Lijian's tweet suggesting the U.S. Army may have introduced the virus to Wuhan, the subsequent response from the U.S. State Department, and the broader implications for Sino-US relations. 2. **The diplomatic conflict between China and Australia:** This case explores Australia's call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, China's retaliatory economic measures (tariffs on Australian goods), and the resulting deterioration in bilateral relations. 3. **The confrontation between China and Sweden:** This case focuses on the aggressive statements made by China's Ambassador to Sweden, Gui Congyou, criticizing Sweden's pandemic response and accusing them of Sinophobia. The analysis draws on a range of primary and secondary sources, including official statements, media analyses, and scholarly literature, to understand the various manifestations of wolf warrior diplomacy and its implications. The study examines the interplay of factors contributing to the transition, including changes in leadership under Xi Jinping, rising nationalism, and perceptions of external threats.

The study identifies three key dimensions of China's transition to wolf warrior diplomacy: 1. **Diplomatic Rhetoric and Communication:** This involves the increased use of aggressive and nationalistic rhetoric by Chinese diplomats in public statements and social media interactions. The study highlights the role of social media in amplifying messages and engaging in direct confrontations with foreign counterparts. 2. **Territorial Disputes and Military Assertiveness:** This dimension focuses on China's more aggressive pursuit of territorial claims, leading to increased tensions with neighbors and the U.S. Examples include the militarization of the South China Sea, the establishment of Air Defense Identification Zones, and border disputes with India. 3. **Economic Coercion:** This involves the use of China's economic power (trade restrictions, investment curbs, tourism boycotts) to influence other countries and advance foreign policy objectives. The study examines how China leverages its economic strength to punish or pressure countries that disagree with its policies. The three case studies illustrate these dimensions. The Zhao Lijian-U.S. State Department spat exemplifies assertive rhetoric and the use of social media. The China-Australia conflict showcases economic coercion. The China-Sweden confrontation highlights aggressive diplomatic rhetoric and challenges to traditional diplomatic norms. The study also notes China's 'mask diplomacy' campaign—providing medical supplies during the pandemic—as a component of its wolf warrior diplomacy, highlighting the potential for both cooperation and coercion in China's foreign policy.

The findings demonstrate that China's shift to wolf warrior diplomacy is a multifaceted phenomenon driven by a complex interplay of internal and external factors. The transition is not simply a change in style but a fundamental shift in China's strategic approach to international relations. The assertive rhetoric, territorial claims, and economic coercion reflect China's growing confidence and ambition on the global stage, particularly within the context of its rise as a global power and its competition with the United States. The findings support Power Transition Theory by showing how a rising power uses various tools to challenge the established international order. However, the study also notes potential risks and challenges associated with wolf warrior diplomacy, such as damage to China's global image, potential economic backlash, and increased diplomatic isolation. The case studies reveal both the effectiveness of the strategy in certain contexts and the potential for unintended consequences.

This study reveals a significant shift in China's diplomatic strategy, from a low-profile approach to a more assertive, confrontational style known as 'wolf warrior' diplomacy. This transition is influenced by leadership changes, rising nationalism, perceived external threats, and the use of economic leverage. The three case studies presented illustrate the diverse dimensions of this approach, impacting international relations and global governance. Future research could explore the long-term impacts of this diplomatic strategy on global power dynamics, the effectiveness of counter-strategies, and the evolving nature of international cooperation in a multipolar world.

This study primarily focuses on three specific case studies during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these cases provide valuable insights, they may not fully represent the breadth and depth of China's wolf warrior diplomacy across all contexts and time periods. Further research could include a broader range of cases and time periods to enhance the generalizability of the findings. The study also relies on publicly available information; access to more confidential data could provide additional insights into the decision-making processes behind China's diplomatic actions.