Economics

The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic

M. Pangallo, A. Aleta, et al.

This intriguing study explores the economic and public health impacts of COVID-19 interventions compared to spontaneous behavioral changes, revealing striking socioeconomic disparities. Conducted by a team of experts including Marco Pangallo and Alberto Aleta, the research highlights the complex trade-offs faced by low-income workers in high-contact industries.

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Index

Abstract

This paper investigates whether mandated interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic had similar economic and public health effects as spontaneous behavioral changes, focusing on socioeconomic disparities. Using a data-driven agent-based model simulating epidemic and economic outcomes across various socioeconomic groups in the New York metropolitan area, the study finds a similar trade-off between epidemic and economic outcomes regardless of whether behavioral changes were driven by fear or mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Low-income workers in in-person, customer-facing industries experienced the strongest trade-off.

Publisher

Nature Human Behaviour

Published On

Nov 16, 2023

Authors

Marco Pangallo, Alberto Aleta, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Anton Pichler, David Martín-Corral, Matteo Chinazzi, François Lafond, Marco Ajelli, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno, Alessandro Vespignani, J. Doyne Farmer

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