This study projects that large fire days in Southern California will significantly increase by 2099 due to projected greenhouse gas emissions, despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime. Using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations, the researchers estimate that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year (1970-1999) to 58 days/year (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year (RCP8.5) by 2070-2099. The large fire season will also be more intense, with an earlier onset and delayed end.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Feb 17, 2022
Authors
Chunyu Dong, A. Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Kairong Lin, Gregory S. Okin, Thomas W. Gillespie, Di Long, Yen-Heng Lin, Alex Hall, Glen M. MacDonald
Tags
Southern California
greenhouse gas emissions
large fire days
fire regime
climate change
random forest algorithms
Earth system models
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