The overall-subshear and multi-segment rupture of the 2023 Mw7.8 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey earthquake in millennia supercycle

On February 6, 2023, an Mw7.8 earthquake hit the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and Narlı Fault (NF), followed by an Mw7.5 event on the Sürgü Fault. We combine multiple seismic datasets, global navigation satellite system recordings, and radar satellite images with finite fault inversion and slowness enhanced back-projection to study the rupture kinematics. Our analysis reveals that the rupture originated on the NF, propagating 120 km northeast at 3.05 km/s and 200 km southwest at 3.11 km/s after reaching the EAF junction, exhibiting overall subshear speeds. Further Mach wave analysis confirms the subshear rupture, matching the prediction using close-Rayleigh speeds. The unexpectedly-large slip on some EAF segments suggests a supercycle lasting ≥900 years. The EAF geometry is similar to the San Andreas-San Jacinto Fault system, while the latter has higher slip rates but without large earthquakes on its southern segments since 1857, carrying the potential of an M8 earthquake.

Liuwei Xu, Saeed Mohanna, Lingsen Meng, Chen Ji, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Zhang Yunjun, Masooma Hasnain, Risheng Chu, Cunren Liang