Despite looming land scarcity for agriculture, cropland abandonment is widespread globally. This paper investigates the potential and trade-offs of using abandoned cropland for recultivation and forest restoration through natural regrowth, using spatially explicit modeling and scenario analysis. The study identifies 101 Mha of abandoned cropland (1992-2020), capable of delivering significant food production and net climate change mitigation potential, depending on land-use suitability and allocation strategies. Spatial prioritization is key to maximizing potential, and the authors demonstrate other approaches to further increase these potentials. Findings offer insights into the potential of abandoned cropland for informing sustainable land management to support food security and climate goals.

Qiming Zheng, Tim Ha, Alexander V. Prishchepov, Yiwen Zeng, He Yin, Lian Pin Koh