China's sustainable development is threatened by the regional mismatch between water demand and supply under various climate change scenarios. This study develops a water stress prediction index using a fuzzy decision-making approach to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of water stress and its impact on the population. Results show increasing water stress from 2020 to 2099 under both low and high emission scenarios, primarily due to reduced water supplies. Northwestern provinces will be significantly more affected than southeastern ones, potentially leading to the north-to-south migration of agriculture, manufacturing, and population.

Mengyu Liu, Xiong Zhou, Guohe Huang, Yongping Li