Environmental Studies and Forestry

The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically

M. Liu, X. Zhou, et al.

China's future is at risk as water demand and supply face a dramatic imbalance under climate change threats. This research, conducted by Mengyu Liu, Xiong Zhou, Guohe Huang, and Yongping Li, introduces a water stress prediction index that uncovers alarming trends and their implications for population movement across regions. Discover how this vital resource issue could reshape agriculture and manufacturing in the coming decades.

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Playback language: English

Index

Abstract

China's sustainable development is threatened by the regional mismatch between water demand and supply under various climate change scenarios. This study develops a water stress prediction index using a fuzzy decision-making approach to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of water stress and its impact on the population. Results show increasing water stress from 2020 to 2099 under both low and high emission scenarios, primarily due to reduced water supplies. Northwestern provinces will be significantly more affected than southeastern ones, potentially leading to the north-to-south migration of agriculture, manufacturing, and population.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Jul 23, 2024

Authors

Mengyu Liu, Xiong Zhou, Guohe Huang, Yongping Li

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