Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change despite emitting a small fraction of global greenhouse gases. Decarbonization may lead to a 'climate penalty' – reductions in cooling aerosols offsetting temperature benefits from CO₂ reductions. This study uses the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model to show that while African emissions cuts have weak impacts on temperatures, they significantly affect rainfall. Business-as-usual emissions lead to substantial drying in tropical Northern Hemisphere Africa during summer, but a sustainable development pathway largely eliminates this drying. Reduced cooling aerosols are responsible for a significant portion (33-90%) of the avoided drying, highlighting the significant leverage African policy choices have on their climate and air quality future.

Drew Shindell, Luke Parsons, Greg Faluvegi, Kevin Hicks, Johan Kuylenstierna, Charles Heaps