The important role of African emissions reductions in projected local rainfall changes

Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change but emits a small portion of global greenhouse gases. Additionally, decarbonization might lead to a 'climate penalty' whereby reductions in cooling aerosols offset temperature benefits from CO₂ reductions for several decades. However, climate change impacts conditions other than temperatures, including precipitation. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model, we find that although African emissions cuts have weak impacts on projected African temperatures, they significantly impact rainfall. Whereas business-as-usual increasing emissions lead to substantial drying over tropical Northern Hemisphere Africa during local summer, that drying is essentially eliminated under a sustainable development pathway. The reduction in cooling aerosols is responsible for ~33-90% of the avoided drying in our model, with the remainder largely attributable to reduced absorbing aerosols. African policy choices may therefore greatly reduce regional African summer drying, giving parts of Africa substantial leverage over their own climate and air quality future.

Drew Shindell, Luke Parsons, Greg Faluvegi, Kevin Hicks, Johan Kuylenstierna, Charles Heaps