The impact of subjective intergenerational mobility on well-being: evidence from China

The study examines how subjective intergenerational mobility (SIGM)—how individuals perceive their social status relative to their parents—has changed in China and how it relates to subjective well-being. Motivated by policy goals associated with the “Chinese dream” and the need to understand social mobility dynamics to promote common prosperity, the authors address gaps in evidence on long-term SIGM trends, regional and cohort differences, and its association with well-being in a developing country context. The research questions are: (1) How has SIGM evolved across Chinese birth cohorts and regions? (2) Does SIGM affect individuals’ subjective well-being, and through what mechanisms? The study’s importance lies in informing policies that enhance happiness and welfare by improving social mobility perceptions and addressing inequality.

Prior studies suggest an upward trend in SIGM in China (Yang and Lian, 2015; Xu, 2018), and extensive literature documents intergenerational income mobility across countries, with higher persistence (lower mobility) generally in developing contexts and variability across developed countries (e.g., Gouskova et al., 2010; Bratberg et al., 2014; Fan, 2016; Neidhöfer et al., 2018). Evidence links SIGM to health outcomes—often more strongly than objective mobility measures (Miyakawa et al., 2012; Smith et al., 2019; Gerry and Adam, 2021)—and to inequality perceptions (Gugushvili, 2016). Research on mobility and well-being is mixed: several studies report positive associations of income/occupational/educational mobility with well-being, while downward mobility harms well-being (Bridger and Daly, 2020; Nikolaev and Burns, 2014; Hadjar and Samuel, 2015; Becker and Birkelbach, 2018). Subjective factors such as perceived class position shape well-being (Tan et al., 2020; Huang et al., 2024; Kim and Lee, 2023). However, systematic analyses of long-term SIGM in China, including birth cohort and regional heterogeneity and links to well-being, remain scarce. This study expands the literature by providing comprehensive Chinese evidence and examining mechanisms through health and perceived inequality.

Data: The study uses the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) waves 2012, 2014, and 2016. After excluding invalid responses (e.g., “not applicable” or unclear answers), 33,605 valid observations remain. The analytical sample includes individuals aged 26–60, stratified by region (eastern, middle, western) and by birth cohorts (1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s). Monetary variables are CPI-adjusted to 2015 RMB. Measures: Subjective social status is elicited via a 10-rung social ladder. Children’s subjective status is measured at present (and in ancillary analyses, five years past and future), while parental status is reported retrospectively for when the respondent was age 14. SIGM is defined primarily as the difference between child and parent subjective status (an absolute difference measure), with an alternative percentage-change measure and a trichotomous indicator (child above/equal/below parent coded as 1/0/−1). Key outcomes include subjective well-being (5-point happiness scale), self-rated health (1–5), and perceived social inequality (fairness of living standard vs. effort; higher denotes more unfair/unequal). Estimation of SIGM and relative mobility: The core regression of child status on parent status yields subjective intergenerational elasticity (SIGE): child_status = α + γ·parent_status + controls + ε. Birth-cohort-specific slopes are estimated by interacting/segmenting by birth years. To account for dispersion differences across generations, subjective intergenerational correlation (SIGC) scales SIGE by the ratio of parental to child status standard deviations. An intergenerational transition matrix (by quintiles of subjective status) is constructed, and a subjective rank–rank slope is estimated using decile ranks of child and parent subjective status. Well-being model: The association between SIGM and SWB is estimated with: SWB_ict = β0 + δ·SIGM_ict + Γ·Dem_ict + city FE + year FE + ε_ict. Demographics include gender, age (and square), years of education (and square), marital status, hukou type, party membership, social capital, insurances, migration, and income. Robust SEs are clustered at the city level. Robustness: Propensity score matching, inclusion of work and income as predetermined covariates, alternative SIGM coding (−1/0/1), alternative outcomes (life satisfaction, economic satisfaction), and alternative dataset (CGSS 2012–2017) are employed. Heterogeneity analyses examine effects by birth cohort, region, and income group (above/below median). Mechanism analyses test mediation and interaction pathways via self-rated health and subjective inequality, following Baron-Kenny/Judd-Kenny and latent interaction approaches. A “subjective Great Gatsby Curve” is assessed by relating SIGE and SIGM to subjective inequality. Descriptive statistics: Mean age 43; child and parent subjective status means 4.358 and 3.351, respectively; mean self-rated health 3.667; mean perceived inequality 3.229; mean well-being 3.739 (scales detailed in the paper).

- SIGM levels and trends: - Upward mobility is prevalent: roughly 60% of respondents exhibit upward subjective intergenerational mobility. - Absolute SIGM (average difference child minus parent) remained around 160%–180% between 2011 and 2015. - Cohort differences: children born in the 1950s report subjective status 180%–210% higher than parents; those born in the 1980s report 140%–160% higher. SIGM declines from the 1950s to the 1980s and converges around a 60% upward-mobility rate across deciles. - Regional differences: western China shows higher SIGM than middle and eastern regions; eastern high-income areas and later cohorts (1970s–1980s) show lower mobility and greater class solidification. - By current status deciles: upward mobility predominates below the 5th decile; above the 5th decile, downward relative mobility becomes more common. - SIGE increased across cohorts (e.g., from 0.264 in the 1950s to 0.390 in the 1980s) and generally falls in the range 0.299–0.391; SIGE in western regions is typically lower than in eastern/middle regions, reflecting higher mobility in the west. - Association with well-being: - Baseline regressions show SIGM positively predicts well-being at the 1% level; with controls and fixed effects, the coefficient on SIGM is about 0.177. A 1 SD increase in SIGM raises well-being by approximately 0.0035 SD (0.177 × 0.02). - Education exhibits an inverted U-shaped association with well-being; the turning point is around the bachelor’s level per the authors’ coding. - Robustness checks (PSM; adding work and income; alternative SIGM coding; alternative outcomes; CGSS dataset) confirm positive, significant associations (e.g., coefficients ~0.147–0.185 across specifications). - Heterogeneity: - By cohort: SIGM’s effect on well-being is strongest for the 1950 cohort and weakest for the 1980 cohort (coefficients approximately 0.239, 0.182, 0.166, 0.110, all p<0.01). - By region: effects are positive across regions, with larger effects in eastern and middle regions than in the west (e.g., ~0.184 east, 0.200 middle, 0.165 west). - By income: the effect is stronger for low-income than high-income groups (0.193 vs. 0.167). - Mechanisms (mediation/interaction): - Self-rated health is positively associated with well-being; subjective inequality is negatively associated. Interactions indicate SIGM attenuates the negative impact of inequality and that the positive marginal effect of SIGM on well-being grows as perceived inequality increases, but diminishes at very high self-rated health levels. - Mediation results: total effect of SIGM on well-being ≈ 0.126, with indirect effects via health ≈ 0.005 (about 4.0% of total) and via inequality ≈ 0.051 (about 40.8% of total); direct effects remain positive and significant. - Subjective Great Gatsby Curve: - SIGE is positively associated with subjective inequality (greater perceived unfairness correlates with higher intergenerational persistence), and SIGM (child–parent status difference) is negatively associated with subjective inequality, indicating that higher perceived inequality corresponds to lower upward SIGM.

The findings demonstrate that Chinese residents generally perceive upward intergenerational movement in social status, but the extent of this upward movement has diminished for later birth cohorts, suggesting a slowdown in mobility and possible class solidification, particularly in high-income eastern regions. SIGM’s positive association with subjective well-being addresses the core research question by showing that perceived upward movement relative to one’s parents contributes to happiness beyond objective socioeconomic factors. Mechanism analyses clarify that this link operates both through improved self-perceived health and, more strongly, through mitigating the adverse effects of perceived social inequality. These results align with theories emphasizing the psychological benefits of upward movement and the role of fairness perceptions in life satisfaction. The documented subjective Great Gatsby Curve implies that higher intergenerational persistence coexists with stronger perceptions of inequality, and greater perceived inequality undermines upward SIGM, reinforcing the importance of policies that both enhance mobility opportunities and reduce unfairness perceptions. The regional and income-group heterogeneities suggest targeted interventions: mobility gains in western regions coexist with smaller well-being payoffs, while low-income groups benefit more from mobility in terms of well-being gains.

Using nationally representative CLDS data (2012–2016), the study shows that Chinese SIGM is predominantly upward but declining across cohorts from the 1950s to the 1980s, with notable regional disparities. SIGM robustly and positively predicts subjective well-being, with significant indirect pathways via self-rated health and especially via perceived inequality. A subjective Great Gatsby Curve is evident: perceived inequality rises with intergenerational persistence and reduces upward SIGM. Policy implications include investing in human capital (education) and reforming restrictive institutions (e.g., hukou) to enhance subjective social status and well-being. Future research should integrate objective income-based mobility measures alongside subjective status to compare mechanisms, and consider measurement expansions beyond the 10-rung ladder to reduce ceiling effects.

- The CLDS lacks parental income, preventing direct estimation of objective intergenerational income mobility or comparative analyses between objective and subjective measures within the same dataset. - The subjective social status ladder is capped at 10, which may compress variation and underestimate mobility at higher rungs (ceiling effects). - Retrospective reporting of parental status at age 14 may introduce recall bias. - External validity to other developing countries may be limited given China’s unique institutional and regional structures.