The dynamic effect of trading between China and Taiwan under exchange rate fluctuations

As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan's export income can be easily influenced by internal and international economic factors, including the industrial production index (IPI) and the exchange rate. With China being Taiwan's largest recipient, Taiwan's export income from China is extremely important to Taiwan's economy. Therefore, this research investigates the nonlinear relationship between the IPI of Taiwan and Taiwan's export income from China with the application of a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model. In addition, the currency exchange rate of RMB to NTD, which is the transfer variable, is used to examine the dynamic effect. The research period is monthly data ranging from January 2001 to February 2022. The empirical results show that the effect of the IPI of Taiwan on Taiwan's export income with China is dynamic. Moreover, with the existence of a threshold value, its influence changes as the currency exchange rate of RMB to NTD varies over time. Finally, regardless of whether the currency exchange rate of RMB to NTD is above or below the threshold value, as the IPI of Taiwan increases, Taiwan's export income from China also increases, differing only in the degree of increase.

Tzu-Yi Yang, Chieh Liu, Yu-Tai Yang, Ssu-Han Chen