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The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction

Earth Sciences

The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction

M. Kueh and C. Lin

Dive into the findings of Mien-Tze Kueh and Chuan-Yao Lin as they explore the dynamics behind the 2018 heatwaves in northwestern Europe. Discover how a persistent blocking regime shaped the heatwaves in Scandinavia, while the Atlantic Low regime took the spotlight in Western Europe. Their research reveals predictive insights that could enhance our understanding of heatwaves weeks in advance.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, with the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as secondary contributors. The major contributor to the WE heatwave was AL. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts captured the evolution of warm spells up to 3 weeks in advance, but heatwave occurrence and significance predictions were unsatisfactory. BL and AL could be predicted 2 weeks in advance, leading to successful warm spell predictions.
Publisher
Scientific Reports
Published On
Nov 06, 2020
Authors
Mien-Tze Kueh, Chuan-Yao Lin
Tags
heatwaves
northwestern Europe
blocking regime
Atlantic Low
predictions
Scandinavia
Western Europe

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