Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. This study uses an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach to assess how ambitious carbon-focused land restoration and protected area enlargement, alongside increasing agricultural demands, affect landscape-scale changes and key regulating nature’s contributions to people (NCP). The findings suggest that these actions alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends; however, combining them with interventions supporting critical NCP and biodiversity outside protected areas, particularly conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes, could be effective without additional carbon losses or reduced agricultural productivity.

Patrick José von Jeetze, Isabelle Weindl, Justin Andrew Johnson, Pasquale Borrelli, Panos Panagos, Edna J. Molina Bacca, Kristine Karstens, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Sara Minoli, Christoph Müller, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp