Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection

Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature’s contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.

Patrick José von Jeetze, Isabelle Weindl, Justin Andrew Johnson, Pasquale Borrelli, Panos Panagos, Edna J. Molina Bacca, Kristine Karstens, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Sara Minoli, Christoph Müller, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp