Many economic assessments of climate change costs rely on a few climate-economy models that only account for epistemic uncertainty (parameter estimation errors). This paper introduces a method to incorporate aleatory uncertainty (irreducible uncertainty even with known parameters) and demonstrates that even moderate variability adds trillions of dollars in previously unaccounted-for damages.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Oct 06, 2020
Authors
Raphael Calel, Sandra C. Chapman, David A. Stainforth, Nicholas W. Watkins
Tags
climate change
economic assessment
uncertainty
aleatory uncertainty
damages
epistemic uncertainty
cost analysis
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