This study investigates the cost reduction potential of blue hydrogen production through large-scale deployment and government incentives. Using experience curves, the authors estimate the evolving costs of blue hydrogen from steam methane reforming (SMR) and coal gasification with carbon capture and storage (CCS). They analyze the economic impact of the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits and find that achieving the $1/kg H₂ cost target is highly dependent on tax credits, natural gas prices, inflation, and learning rates. The study offers recommendations for hydrogen hub development and accelerating technological progress.

Wanying Wu, Haibo Zhai, Eugene Holubnyak