Earth Sciences

Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990

B. H. Samset, C. Zhou, et al.

This insightful study by B. H. Samset, C. Zhou, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. T. Lund, J. Marotzke, and M. D. Zelinka delves into global mean surface temperature changes over nearly five decades, revealing a consistent warming trend and intriguing variations since 1990 that challenge current climate models.

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Abstract

This study analyzes global mean surface temperature changes from 1973 to 2022, focusing on decadal warming rate variations. Using an Earth System Model-based tool to filter out sea-surface temperature pattern modulations, the authors find a consistent 50-year warming rate of 0.18 °C/decade across four major global temperature datasets. However, they also observe a clear increase in the warming rate since approximately 1990. CMIP6 models generally fail to reproduce this observed combination of long-term warming rate and the recent increase.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Nov 01, 2023

Authors

B. H. Samset, C. Zhou, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. T. Lund, J. Marotzke, M. D. Zelinka

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