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Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Health and Fitness

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

C. J. Carlson, R. Colwell, et al.

Explore the intriguing implications of solar geoengineering on malaria risk! This research by Colin J. Carlson and colleagues reveals potential regional trade-offs in malaria transmission across Africa and southern Asia, emphasizing that cooling the tropics could protect some populations while threatening others. The study sheds light on the complex health outcomes of geoengineering strategies in the face of climate change.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Apr 20, 2022
Authors
Colin J. Carlson, Rita Colwell, Mohammad Sharif Hossain, Mohammed Mofizur Rahman, Alan Robock, Sadie J. Ryan, Mohammad Shafiul Alam, Christopher H. Trisos
Tags
solar geoengineering
malaria risk
climate change
public health
regional trade-offs
greenhouse gas emissions
population health
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