This study investigates the impact of soil moisture (SM) meridional oscillations on East Asian Monsoon (EAM) precipitation variability across China using observed precipitation, remotely sensed SM, and atmospheric reanalysis data. A coupled manifold technique (CMT) and numerical simulations demonstrate a significant correlation between EAM precipitation interannual variability and SM meridional oscillations. SM forcing explains about 40% of the precipitation variance in both north and south China. Composite analysis reveals that wetter (drier) conditions in northern (southern) China oscillate EAM precipitation accordingly, primarily due to SM's influence on surface energy fluxes and atmospheric circulations. Model simulations validate these findings, suggesting SM's potential to improve EAM interannual forecasts.

Waheed Ullah, Chenxia Zhu, Guojie Wang, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Dan Lou, Jiangfeng Wei, Aisha Karim, Shijie Li, Buda Su, Tong Jiang