Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

Long-term sea-level rise and multiyear to decadal sea level variations pose substantial risks for flooding and erosion in coastal communities. This study uses observations and climate model predictions to demonstrate that sea level variations along the U.S. East Coast are skillfully predictable 3 to 10 years in advance. The most predictable component is a basin-scale upward trend, predictable a decade in advance and primarily a response to increasing greenhouse gases. Additional predictability comes from multidecadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While perfect model simulations show AMOC-related sea level predictability of 5–7 years, model biases and initialization uncertainties reduce the realized predictive skill to 3–5 years, depending on location. Greenhouse gas warming and predictable AMOC variations contribute to multiyear to decadal prediction skill for sea level along the U.S. East Coast, offering significant societal benefits for planning and adaptation.

Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng