Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead

The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon significantly impacts Asian society. While climate models predict the monsoon up to six months in advance, long-range prediction remains challenging. This study, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast (1980–2016), demonstrates that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated tropical cyclone activity more than a year ahead. Successful simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution and the subsequent atmosphere-ocean response in the Indian Ocean-western North Pacific are key to this long-range prediction. A large ensemble size is crucial for achieving useful prediction skill.

Yuhei Takaya, Yu Kosaka, Masahiro Watanabe, Shuhei Maeda